By Daniel Jente, Horse Handicapper Extraordinaire
(UPDATE 5/2/09: WATCH YOUTUBE VIDEO AT THE END OF THIS POST)

How Bet the 135th Kentucky Derby: The right bet with the right horses
There are several different type of bets offered in the Kentucky Derby other than the normal Win, Place and Show wagers. There are exacta, trifecta’s, superfecta’s, daily doubles, daily triples, pick 3’s, 4’s, 5’s and 6’s etc. This year, there is an amazing horse in the Kentucky Oaks, the female version of the Kentucky Derby. The Oaks is run on Friday, the day before the Kentucky Derby. I will take advantage of this horse’s dominance to make some money in the “Derby / Oaks Double”.
What is the Derby Oaks double you may ask? Well to successfully win at this bet, you must pick the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. Also, this wager MUST be entered in at the betting facility before the 11th Race at Churchill downs on FRIDAY, the day before the Kentucky Derby. Now this sounds complicated, but let me explain.
This year the Kentucky Oaks has a field of 8 females. The Kentucky Derby has a full field of 20 males. So, simple math tells you that there are 160 possible winning combinations (8 * 20 = 160). Most of these combinations have an extremely low chance of winning.
To make this bet playable, you must have an angle or a horse that you really like to keep the cost of the tickets low. Well, as I mentioned, I have an angle. In the Kentucky Oaks, I LOVE the #6 horse, Rachel Alexandra (UPDATE: SEE YOUTUBE VIDEO AT THE END OF THIS POST...). Rachel Alexandra is an EXTREMELY talented female horse. She has won her previous four races by a combined margin of 23 lengths. She has raced over the surface at Churchill Downs before and romped in that race. She has raced in wet weather as well as races of the same distance as the Kentucky Oaks. She had the most impressive workout of all horses leading up to the Derby, including all the males in the Derby. I think she is talented enough that she could have even be a legitimate contender in the Kentucky Derby. In any other situation I would just flat out bet Rachel Alexandra to win, but because of her dominance in this race, she will have extremely short odds. Most likely 1-10 or for every $2 wagered you would make 10 cents. The risk reward doesn’t make sense. The derby / oaks double lets you extract some value out of her and increase her odds.
So, of the 8 horses in the Oaks, I am using 1 in the double. By singling Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks Derby Double, it cuts out 140 possible winning combinations, leaving only 20 possible combinations.
Now, the Kentucky Derby: In the weeks leading up to the derby, there have been several horses that have decided not to race because of either an injury or lack of preparation. These scratches have whittled down the possible legitimate threats to win the derby.
This year like most, I narrow down the field to the contenders I like, then assign them a rating of A, B, or C based on how well I like them, how I think the race will set up, how there post position effects their chance of winning, etc. An “A” horse has the best chance of winning down to a “C” being a long shot but a contender. Here are my contenders after they have been rated:
A
# 6 Fresian Fire
# 13 I Want Revenge
# 15 Pioneer of the Nile
# 16 Dunkirk
B
# 10 Regal Ransom
# 19 Desert Party
C
# 7 Papa Clem
# 11 Chocolate Candy
My Tickets:
Ticket #1: $20 Oaks Derby Double --- 6 with the 6, 13, 15, 16 = Total Cost $80
This is my main ticket. Each ticket costs $8. I am going to play this bet for the $20 or 10 tickets. For a total of $80 wagered. Possible payout in my estimation would be approximately $30 - $75 for each winning ticket depending on which horse won the race. That would give a total possible return of $300 - $750.
Ticket #2: $20 Oak Derby Double --- 6 with the 10, 19 = Total Cost $40
Each ticket would cost $4. I am going to play this bet for the $20 or 10 tickets. Total cost of all tickets $40. This ticket could in my estimation pay out between $80 and $150 for each winning ticket. That would give a total possible return of $720 to $1350 for all winning tickets.
My final ticket is: $10 Oaks Derby Double --- 6 with the 7, 11 = Total Cost $20
Each ticket would cost $2. I am going to do this bet for the $10 or 5 tickets. Total cost of all tickets $20. An individual winning ticket could pay about $125. That would give a total possible return on investment of $625.
In summary, the tickets in total will cost you $140 for a possible return on investment of at least $300 to $1350. Playing a bet like the Derby Oaks Double takes a dominate horse like Rachel Alexandra who will most have extremely short odds and increase them by taking a little risk. Good luck!
NOTE: I am wagering, uh... some money on this race. Dan is wagering some more on this race... we're gonna be rich!!!